Misreading Tehran: 10 brutal lessons Iran drew from US, Israeli military campaign
Misreading Tehran: 10 brutal lessons Iran drew from US, Israeli military campaign
Jun 26, 2026
Misreading Tehran: 10 brutal lessons Iran drew from US, Israeli military campaign
June 24, 2026 09:42 AM GMT+03:00
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With a preliminary agreement to end the U.S.-Israeli war, international observers have started calculating the damage inflicted upon the Islamic Republic of Iran, pointing to shattered proxy infrastructure, a degraded military, destroyed missile and drone sites, and deep economic isolation as evidence of a regime on the ropes
But in Tehran, the leadership is drawing a drastically different conclusion.
Rather than facing imminent collapse, the Iranian regime has emerged from Operation Epic Fury with a battle-tested playbook for survival that makes another major confrontation with the U.S. highly unlikely. The conflict has not humiliated Tehran. It has educated it. For a regime obsessed with self-preservation, the war has provided a masterclass in modern geopolitical resilience, offering ten definitive lessons that will shape Iran’s strategic culture vis-à-vis future conflicts with the United States.
First: War is a blessing
Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, famously described the devastating eight-year war with Iraq as a “divine blessing” because of its apparent rally-around-the-flag effect. Likewise, the current regime has rediscovered the truth that war is a boon simply because the greatest existential threat to the Iranian government is not Washington or Tel Aviv, but its own disgruntled citizens.
The regime that was grappling with massive protests in recent years has realized that a major external threat silences domestic dissent, leaving virtually no viable political opposition in Iran for the foreseeable future. By framing itself as the defender of the nation against foreign aggression, the regime has successfully neutralized its internal enemies.
Second: Regime can survive the worst the ‘satans’ can dish out
This lesson is one of profound defiance: Tehran has learned it can weather any storm the two “Satans” unleash. Iran calls Israel the “Little Satan” and the United States the “Great Satan.” For decades, the regime braced for a catastrophic U.S. military intervention. However, experiencing the actual conflict revealed that even this worst-case scenario is survivable. There is immense strategic relief in Tehran’s realization that foreign-engineered regime change is off the table. Ultimately, the takeaway is clear: what doesn’t kill the regime makes it stronger.
Third: Strait of Hormuz is now Iran’s most powerful weapon
While a nuclear breakout remains the long-term goal, Tehran has found an immediate conventional equalizer: the Strait of Hormuz. It is now Iran’s most powerful weapon, arguably even more critical than a nuclear bomb.
By holding a chokepoint through which a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas and 20% of its oil passes, Tehran wields global economic leverage capable of deterring Western aggression. Iran is expected to use the waterway as a valuable bargaining chip and to shut it down in response to a major escalation.
Fourth: Iran must acquire nuclear weapons
In the short term, there will be nuclear concessions to make as Iran’s economy direly needs sanctions relief and a financial lifeline to recover. But the war has only accelerated Tehran’s long-term nuclear ambitions. The regime’s strategic consciousness dictates that Iran must acquire nuclear weapons, no matter how long it takes.
Tehran has watched the historical consequences of nuclear capitulation: Ukraine gave up its nuclear stockpile and was invaded; Libya, Syria, and Iraq abandoned their programs or lacked nuclear deterrents and saw their regimes toppled. Conversely, North Korea built the bomb and successfully insulated itself from foreign-led regime change. Iran views a nuclear arsenal not as a tool of provocation, but as the ultimate insurance policy.
Iranian soccer fans cheer as they watch a broadcast of the 2026 World Cup Group G football match between Belgium and Iran in Tehran, Iran, on June 21, 2026. (AFP Photo)
Fifth: The proxy network must be rebuilt
This war exposed a consequential vulnerability for Iran: the proxy network plays a key role in Iran’s “Forward Defense” doctrine and must be rebuilt and reinforced. This network, framed as an “Axis of Resistance,” enabled Tehran to project power and influence across the region against Israel and the United States. Tehran observed that when its proxy groups were degraded following events unleashed after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, Israel felt empowered to strike Iran directly. To maintain strategic depth, rebuilding Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias is a matter of immediate national security.
Sixth: China is indispensable
Iran recognizes that financing its multi-front strategy requires economic lifelines, and as Iran’s main oil buyer, China is essential. The conflict proved that American-led sanctions cannot destroy the regime as long as Beijing steps in. China currently purchases roughly 90% of Iran’s oil, providing a vital economic artery that funds Iran’s nuclear, ballistic, drone, and proxy networks despite Western sanctions.
Seventh: Cheap drones are expensive
Technologically, the war redefined the economics of modern combat. Tehran learned that the drone is king. Cheap, mass-produced Iranian drones like the “Shahed-136 Kamikaze Drone” forced the United States and the Gulf Arab states to expend billions of dollars on sophisticated air-defense interceptors, turning the financial calculus of war entirely in Iran’s favor.
Iranian-made Shahed-136 ‘Kamikaze’ drone flies over the sky of Kermanshah, Iran, March 7, 2024. (AFP Photo)
Eighth: Hypersonic missiles are game changers
Simultaneously, while standard missile salvos successfully bought time, Tehran realized that to inflict pain, it must possess hypersonic missiles. Hypersonic weapons—almost untraceable and capable of piercing Israel’s advanced defense shields—are viewed as the necessary edge to directly threaten Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf.
Ninth: Airstrikes cannot achieve regime change
The ninth lesson shatters the myth of airborne intervention: airpower and foreign airstrikes cannot achieve regime change, no matter how massive the campaign is, or how advanced the world’s strongest armies are. Without boots on the ground, an embattled but firmly entrenched regime can withstand the rain of fire from above. This lesson will solidify Iran’s grand strategy centered on resilience, proxies, and the mass production of affordable drones.
Tenth: Prolonged asymmetric warfare is heavily to Iran’s advantage
The war with Iran wreaked havoc on the global economy, causing massive disruptions to energy supplies and spiking inflation. Global crude prices skyrocketed due to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting economic fallout and pressure at the pump eventually forced the Trump administration to halt the war. If anything, this once again proved to Tehran that prolonged asymmetric warfare is heavily to its advantage. Western democracies are sensitive to time, election cycles, casualties, and economic instability; authoritarian regimes built on ideological survival are not. By dragging out conflicts through asymmetric means, Iran can outlast its adversaries.
In conclusion, the U.S.-Israeli war was intended to deter and diminish Iran. Instead, it has achieved the opposite. Tehran has emerged more confident, more cynical, and utterly convinced of its own durability. If the United States continues to rely on the old playbook of sanctions and airstrikes, it will find itself fighting an adversary that has already adapted to the future of warfare.
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Link:
https://realpolitikbyahmad.substack.com/p/misreading-tehran-10-brutal-lessons
Ahmad Hashemi
Ahmad Hashemi is the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Program at the Global Policy Institute (GPI). He has a unique background as a former Iranian Foreign Ministry official, freelance journalist, and pro-democracy activist. Mr. Hashemi received a BA in Political Science from the University of Tehran and an MA in Regional Studies (American Studies) from the School of International Relations, affiliated with Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In 2022, he graduated from Missouri State University’s Department of Defense and Strategic Studies in Fairfax, Virginia, with a Master of Science in Defense and Strategic Studies. His professional experience includes a research fellowship at the Hudson Institute, where his work focused on Iran, Azerbaijan, and Middle Eastern foreign policy. As a freelance journalist, Mr. Hashemi has authored hundreds of pieces in Persian, Turkish, Azerbaijani, and English for outlets such as The National Interest, The Hill, The Washington Examiner, JNS, The Times of Israel, The Jerusalem Post, Israel Hayom, BBC Persian, Al Arabiya, Iran International, and The Independent Persian. Follow him on X @MrAhmadHashemi.
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