ABŞ-İRAN DANIŞIQLARI SONRASI SSENARİLƏR | AÇIQ YORUM

 ABŞ-İRAN DANIŞIQLARI SONRASI SSENARİLƏR | AÇIQ YORUM

Əhməd Haşimi, GünAzTV - Güney Azərbaycan Televiziyası

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During my appearance on South Azerbaijan TV, I analyzed potential outcomes should nuclear negotiations fail. I argued that while Washington remains deeply averse to a full-scale war and continues to prioritize diplomatic channels (Coercive Diplomacy), any shift toward military action would likely manifest as high-precision, surgical strikes targeting Iran’s key strategic assets rather than a broad-based, dragged-out conflict.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hx7vFoAwVc8&t=1608s

#IranUSConflict

#SurgicalStrikes

#NuclearDiplomacy

#MiddleEastWar

#StrategicAssets

#warscenarios

#trumpiranattack

#MaximumPressure

#Geopolitics

#NationalSecurity

#InternationalRelations

#ForeignPolicy

#SouthCaucasus

#StrategicStudies

#iran

#IRGCterrorists

#southazerbaijan

#StraitOfHormuz

#tehran

#washingtondc

My Insights on AnewZ TV: Exploring the Economic and Geopolitical Impact of Reopened Borders

My Insights on AnewZ TV: Exploring the Economic and Geopolitical Impact of Reopened Borders

I recently appeared on AnewZ TV to discuss the strategic normalization of relations between Armenia and its neighbors, Azerbaijan and Turkey. I shared my perspective on how the full reopening of these borders could serve as a catalyst for regional stability and economic integration.

#SouthCaucasus, #Armenia, #Azerbaijan, #Geopolitics, #TRIPP, #ZangezurCorridor

https://youtu.be/Lh3YpqO3FUE

In my recent interview with Al Taghier TV, I argued that while Iran is down, but not out, the "machine of repression" remains largely intact.

 Iran is down, but not out.

In my recent interview with Al Taghier TV, I argued that while Iran is down, but not out, the "machine of repression" remains largely intact. I emphasized that a true revolutionary shift will only occur when we see three critical indicators:

1- Institutional Cracks: Mass defections within the IRGC ranks.

2- Economic Paralysis: Sustained, massive labor strikes in the vital oil sector.

3- Cohesive Opposition: A unified opposition leadership council.

Currently, none of these conditions has materialized. I also analyzed Iran’s strategic efforts to reconstitute its "Axis of Resistance." While Iraqi Shiite militias and the Houthis in Yemen remain mostly intact, Tehran is finding it significantly harder to rebuild Hezbollah and Hamas from the ashes.

Regarding the political landscape, I noted that the opposition remains deeply fractured. I argued that Reza Pahlavi—whether inadvertently or otherwise—serves as the regime’s greatest asset by acting as a polarizing figure. His prominence currently serves the regime’s interests by deepening internal divisions and preventing the formation of a truly cohesive opposition front.

Ultimately, while the regime is significantly weakened, its resilience should not be underestimated as long as the security apparatus holds and the opposition remains divided.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVvtFc2my90&list=PLZPCKRUBeKRhH-8KeMRji71VWTl9GUkf1

Iran Protests: When the Bazaar Turns Against the State

 Iran Protests: When the Bazaar Turns Against the State

I discussed the implications of the current protest movement in Iran for the Global Policy Institute (GPI).

I argued that this round of protests will not lead to a regime collapse, nor is such a collapse imminent. Despite the mass casualties and the extreme brutality displayed by the Iranian government, the regime remains stable for several key reasons.

Contrary to the narrative often repeated in Western media, popular dissatisfaction does not automatically equate to a government's fall. While the Iranian regime is deeply unpopular, it persists because the following critical elements are missing:

· No mass defections within the IRGC or security forces.

· No sustained labor strikes in the vital oil industry.

· No unified opposition leadership.

· Deep fragmentation among opposition groups.

Furthermore, I addressed the role of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah of Iran. Although some Western circles attempt to frame him as a leader for the protest movement or a transitional figure for a post-Islamic Republic Iran, he remains a highly divisive figure. He is particularly unpopular among non-Persian ethnic groups, who constitute roughly half of Iran’s population. Reza Pahlavi is an asset to the Iranian regime, and the mullahs in Tehran are grateful for his divisive and destructive role within the ranks of the opposition forces. He is unfit for a transitional role and has zero chance of being restored as a monarch in the 21st century. The Iranian people seek democratization, dignity, and progress. They want to move forward, not backward toward the brutal, repressive rule of an absolute monarch.

Watch the conversation here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIZjWzRYz5s

#iranprotests2026 #iranrevolution #iran #RezaPahlavi #RegimeChange #monarchy