I discussed with BBC News Persian service the US-EU differences on Ukraine and Biden Administration’s reluctance to take a harsher approach on Russia.
با بیبیسیفارسی درباره اختلاف رویکرد آمریکا و اروپا در خصوص اوکراین و عدم رغبت دولت بایدن در اتخاذ رویکردی سختگیرانهتر در قبال روسیه صحبت کردم
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NH-NF-3P60&t=80s
Citing my The Hill article, Iran's leading English language newspaper hashtag#Tehran_Times, which is run by the regime's main propagandist body, "the Islamic Ideology Dissemination Organization", has warned that any attack on Iran will be a deadly miscalculation.
COMMENTARY
Feb 15, 2024
Hudson Institute
In this newsletter from Hudson’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, Research Fellow Ahmad Hashemi gives a look beyond the mainstream discourse on Iran. For the latest important and revealing developments from the country, subscribe here.
Resistance Axis
News about the Iran-led proxy network in the Middle East that Tehran calls the “Resistance Axis.”
A Second Hezbollah
Iran boasts about the Houthis’ increasing the cost of Israel’s war in Gaza and pressuring the Biden administration to push for a permanent ceasefire. Take the newspaper Jam-e Jam’s January 17 article, for instance. The paper, which is published by the State Radio and Television Organization, claims that the Houthis have extended their unbroken eight-year track record of victory against Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and their Western supporters by making the Red Sea unsafe for Iran’s enemies. “The Houthis have humiliated America and created panic in Israel,” the article states.
Why it matters. Through the Houthis, Iran is reproducing the successful example of Hezbollah, which has acted as Iran’s top proxy and main asset in deterring potential Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear sites. The Houthis have advanced their capabilities to a point where they can obstruct supply chains and shipping to pressure the West to mediate a truce in Gaza.
Hajji Washington
Developments in Iran-US relations. In 1889, Iran appointed Hajji Hossein-Gholi Khan Noori, also known as Hajji Washington, to be its first ambassador to the United States.
Biden Will Not Hit Targets in Iran
The January 28 killing of three US troops in Jordan in a drone attack by Iran-backed Iraqi militants has sparked debates among the Iranians inside and outside the country about whether the US will respond by striking targets in Iran. The consensus among Iranian experts and social media users is that the attack in Jordan sought mainly to increase the pressure on the Biden administration, which will in turn force Israel to end the war in Gaza. Most Iranians also agree that the upcoming 2024 presidential election restrains President Joe Biden from taking any major military action inside Iran, fearing escalation.
Sussex University lecturer Kamran Matin predicted on February 1 that the Biden administration would deliberately delay its response to give the Iranian forces a chance to leave their bases in Iraq and Syria and not suffer casualties. Otherwise, the administration believes, Iran will be forced to respond, America will retaliate again, and the cycle will escalate into a wider war. Matin’s prediction proved correct. The Biden administration waited four days, until February 2, to carry out retaliatory strikes on targets in Iraq and Syria. Additionally, Iran had a chance to pull its senior IRGC forces from Syria on February 1, one day before the US took retaliatory actions.
Matin is not a lone voice. Mohammad Ali Jannatkhah, a conservative media personality in Iran, opined that there is no possibility of a direct US-Iran confrontation for at least one year. For the Biden administration, cordial relations with Iran are so desirable and important—and the stakes are so high—that Washington will not risk escalation. According to Jannatkhah, US strikes would target Iran-led proxies but not Iran itself. Yet others believe that the Biden team is under huge pressure from Congress, even from fellow Democrats, to hit targets inside Iran.
Some American analysts who are routinely sympathetic to the Iranian government warned about any threat of escalation and prescribed a diplomacy-only approach. In an appearance on BBC Persian Service on January 28, International Crisis Group Iran Project Director Ali Vaez stated that he saw no advantages for the US in resorting to military force. To back his argument, Vaez produced a specious statistic, claiming that after former President Donald Trump took down top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, the State Department reported a 400 percent increase in Iran’s proxy attacks against American targets. Vaez erroneously argues that absorbing the blows from Iran is the only viable option.
Why it matters. US deterrence has eroded. Ali Khamenei assumes that America is either incapable or unwilling to respond to Iranian aggression in a way that truly punishes Iran. He can rely on a stable of Western analysts to amplify the theme that Iran’s rise is inevitable and American and allied resistance is futile.
Love Triangle
Issues pertaining to the alliance of convenience among Ali Khamenei’s Iran, Xi Jinping’s China, and Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Iran, The Hague, and the Pax Sinica
Following South Africa’s accusation of genocide against Israel before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Iran expressed disappointment at Russia’s and China’s stances. On January 12, Hamshahri, a newspaper owned by the Tehran municipality, called their positions “strange.” The paper complained that, while China and Russia are adamant supporters of the Palestinian cause in rhetoric, they are not among the countries supporting South Africa’s official complaint.
Other state media outlets, however, have argued that Iran, Russia, and China have greatly benefitted from the conflict in Gaza, and that the United States is the biggest loser. A report published on January 7 by the regime’s official media outlet, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), claims that Beijing’s position as an impartial mediator in the Gaza conflict has grown in significance, and that China’s influence in West Asia is increasing. China hopes to strengthen its position in the region by weakening America’s strategic influence through an Iran-backed peace initiative called the Pax Sinica.
Why it matters. The Islamic Republic has a talent for compartmentalization. On the one hand, it celebrates its alliance with Beijing and Moscow to counter the US-led international order. On the other hand, Tehran openly acknowledges disagreements among the three countries. This underscores that the Triangle Alliance is based more on convenience than any deeper alignment
Iran and Israel
The latest on the ongoing 40-year shadow war between the Islamic Republic and the Jewish state.
Lose to Palestine!
While Iranian sports teams are barred from competing against their Israeli counterparts, the Islamic Republic encourages competition with Palestinian teams. Yet Iran frowns upon the idea of its teams and athletes winning any game against Palestinians. Winning against the official underdogs violates the dictates of chivalry, the Islamic Republic believes. Therefore, when Iran beat Palestine 4–1 in the Asian Cup Group C opener on January 14, some hardliners protested. Ironically, some players on the Palestinian team have dual Israeli citizenship, and of course, some of them play in the Israeli Football League. These players’ Israeli citizenship technically disqualifies Iranian teams from playing against them.
Soccer has always been political in revolutionary Iran, and never more than when Iran hosts Palestinian teams. In October 2011, the Iranian soccer team hosted the Palestinian team and defeated it 7–0. Hossein Shariatmadari, managing editor of the supreme leader’s mouthpiece publication Kayhan, objected. He deemed the Palestinian players “under the oppression of Israel,” and argued that scoring goals against them was nothing to rejoice about.
Why it matters. While the regime encourages its athletes to lose to Palestinians, the Iranian people and national teams reject the official ideology. They prefer to win.
Iran vs. Aniran
Developments in Tehran’s relations with Aniran, the ethnolinguistic slur Iranians use to describe non-Iranian peoples—mainly Turks and Arabs—who live in and around the Islamic Republic.
Is Turkey Stealing Iran’s Clouds?
Over the past two months, photos have been circulating showing contrasting weather conditions in Turkey and Iran. While Turkey has cloudy skies and snow-covered mountaintops, there appears to be nothing but empty skies and dry mountains just across the border in Iran. Why?
One theory is that Turkey is stealing Iran’s clouds and manipulating weather patterns to divert rain clouds away from Iran. Such claims are not new. In 2018, an Iranian official accused Iran’s foreign enemies, mainly Israel, of manipulating the weather to create a drought.
Why it matters. These conspiracy theories serve two serious political purposes. First, they absolve the Iranian regime of responsibility for the fact that its poor environmental policies are causing lakes and rivers to dry up. Second, the theories tarnish the image of feared enemies. The largest lake in Iran, Lake Urmia, has been shrinking for more than a decade, primarily because of excessive dam construction. Importantly, the lake is in Iranian Azerbaijan, adjacent to Iran’s border with Turkey. Azerbaijan and Turkey are not just military allies; they are also closely related ethnically, with mutually intelligible languages. Lake Urmia’s evaporation has led to serious discontent among the Azerbaijanis of Iran, who make up between 20 and 30 percent of the country’s population and feel a strong bond of kinship with both Azerbaijanis and Turks. Iran therefore is eager to distort Turkey’s positive image among Iranian Azerbaijanis by claiming that Turkey is responsible for the environmental disaster.
The Streets of Tehran
The most debated news, issues, and topics of amusement among Iranians.
Amir-Abdollahian’s English
Iranians are mocking Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian after he tripped over basic words during a speech in English at a United Nations Security Council meeting on the situation in Gaza. The video of the speech has gone viral in Iran.
Many Iranians say they feel embarrassed by the incident. Some social media users called Amir-Abdollahian a source of disgrace on the global stage. Others joked that his area of expertise was murder rather than English. Voice of America Persian Service’s former lead presenter, Jamshid Chalangi, sarcastically pleaded with the foreign minister to have mercy and not slaughter the English language. Chalangi was alluding to Iran’s recent execution of political prisoners, which occurred as the foreign minister was welcomed in New York for his UN speech. Khalilullah Baluchi, an ethnic Baluch activist, compared Amir-Abdollahian’s English fluency with that of an elderly street vendor from the impoverished, Sunni-dominated Sistan and Baluchestan Province. However, hardline supporters of the regime have defended Amir-Abdollahian, saying that a foreign minister should not necessarily be judged by his knowledge of foreign languages.
Why it matters. In the Islamic Republic’s personnel decisions, loyalty to the regime trumps professionalism. This is what Iranians are implying on social media when they make fun of its top diplomat: that the only people who can climb the socioeconomic ladder are flatterers and lackeys. Amir-Abdollahian has ascended quickly through the ranks of the Iranian political elite, having been an affiliate of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iranians see this as evidence of his fealty to the regime rather than his competence as a foreign minister.
Beyt Update
News about the Beyt, the Arabic word for house, which refers to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s office and official residence.
Khamenei’s Mar-a-Lago: “The King’s Garden”
Ali Khamenei, the 84-year-old supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, is from Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest holy city, in the northeastern province of Khorasan. Every year, Khamenei returns to Mashhad for Nowruz, Iran’s new year celebration, which starts on March 21 and lasts almost two weeks. During Nowruz, he resides in the Bagh-e Malek (meaning “king’s garden”), the location of a palace that formerly belonged to Iran’s last king, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
Most members of Khamenei’s extended family have parted ways with him due to political differences. Those relatives who have not cut ties with the supreme leader visit him at the King’s Garden each Nowruz. A Russian S-300 advanced surface-to-air missile defense system is reportedly stationed in Mashhad for Khamenei’s protection.
Why it matters. Iranian state media works hard to depict the supreme leader as a humble, personable, and accessible leader who should serve as a fatherly role model for citizens. In truth, however, Iranians do not buy it. Khamenei spends his yearly holiday in seclusion at an expropriated residence still known as the King’s Garden, protected by Russian air defense systems, with relatives who are clearly forced to act like a happy family for the cameras.
https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/view-tehran-iran-february-2024-ahmad-hashemi
COMMENTARY
Mar 29, 2024
Hudson Institute
In this newsletter from Hudson’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, Research Fellow Ahmad Hashemi gives a look beyond the mainstream discourse on Iran. For the latest important and revealing developments from the country, subscribe here.
Resistance Axis
News about the Iran-led proxy network in the Middle East that Tehran calls the “Resistance Axis.”
Cheap Houthi Drones Challenge America
Tehran-affiliated Kavosh Media highlighted that Houthi drones and missiles—built using technologies from Iran, Russia, and China for as little as $2,000 per munition—continue to cause the United States to expend million-dollar interceptors.
Why it matters. As the US spends millions unsuccessfully trying to counter the Houthis, America’s status as a global superpower erodes and the status of Iran’s proxy groups rises.
President Joe Biden has admitted that the airstrikes he authorized will not stop the Houthi attacks. But instead of deterring the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Biden administration held secret talks with Iranian leaders in Oman.
Critics say that the administration, which delisted the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization in February 2021, is emboldening the Houthis and appeasing Iran.
Hajji Washington
Developments in Iran-US relations. In 1889, Iran appointed Hajji Hossein-Gholi Khan Noori, also known as Hajji Washington, to be its first ambassador to the United States.
Iran Meddles in US Politics
Iran has joined Russia and China in celebrating the chaos on America’s southern border. Iranian media is discussing a possible civil war, the secession of Texas, and the large number of foreign nationals entering the US illegally.
Why it matters. Iran is deeply concerned about separatist tendencies among its oppressed non-Persian population but welcomes such movements elsewhere.
When Tehran sees rifts in its enemies’ domestic politics, it does not hesitate to engage in espionage, sabotage, and disinformation, as it did during the 2020 US presidential election.
Love Triangle
Issues pertaining to the alliance of convenience among Ali Khamenei’s Iran, Xi Jinping’s China, and Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
The Taliban and the Triangle Alliance
Iranian, Chinese, and Russian initiatives to improve relations with the Taliban are entering a new phase, argues pro-regime news organization Iranian Diplomacy.
The article observes that chaos in the wake of America’s withdrawal pushed Afghanistan further under the influence of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a development that also serves Moscow and Tehran.
Why it matters. America’s three archenemies are filling the vacuum in resource-rich Afghanistan.
Iran vs. Aniran
Developments in Tehran’s relations with Aniran, the ethnolinguistic slur Iranians use to describe non-Iranian peoples—mainly Turks and Arabs—who live in and around the Islamic Republic.
Turkey Chokes Iran
Turkey poses a multi-pronged threat to Iran according to the International Peace Studies Center (IPSC),a private Iranian think tank.
A new report from the think tank observes that Turkey’s trade with Israel tops $7 billion annually and that Turkey is Azerbaijan’s main route to supply Israel with energy. The report alleges that Ankara is trying to unify the Turkic world and separate Iranian Azerbaijan from Tehran. Additionally, the author sees Turkey’s aspirations to create a corridor between itself and Azerbaijan as a nefarious anti-Iranian plot.
“Turkey is the source of Iran’s geopolitical suffocation,” the report explains.
Why it matters. Iran sees Turkey and Azerbaijan as its greatest adversaries. If the US was more aware of Tehran’s fears, it could contain Iran without having to commit troops or resources in the region by empowering Ankara and Baku.
The Streets of Tehran
The most debated news, issues, and topics of amusement among Iranians.
Record Low Voter Turnout in Iranian Election
Iran’s March 1 parliamentary elections had a record low voter turnout. Many Iranians boycotted the vote, the first such election since the Mahsa Amini uprising in 2022.
In a statement after the election, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei lauded the 41 percent turnout as “epic.” But social media users shared a 2001 video in which Khamenei calls Western nations’ low turnout rates “a cause of shame” and alleges that Western citizens do not trust their political systems.
Why it matters. Regime critics viewed this election as a referendum on the future of the Islamic Republic. Low turnout, they say, demonstrates the supreme leader’s illegitimacy.
In the event of 84-year-old Khamenei’s death, this perception of illegitimacy will be important. Observers should expect a substantial change in the domestic political landscape and Iranian foreign policy. With the regime’s popularity at an all-time low, the selection of a new undemocratic and authoritarian leader could cause a regime collapse.
Beyt Update
News about the Beyt, the Arabic word for house, which refers to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s office and official residence.
The Next Leader’s Name Is Confidential for Fear of Assassination.
A regime representative stated on February 26 that the next supreme leader has already been determined, but added that the name of the future leader is “confidential.” Another official added that “if we reveal the identity of the next leader, he will be assassinated.”
Why it matters. Statements like this show that succession is on the agenda in Iran. But this senior Iranian official also admits that Israeli agents can operate inside the Islamic Republic.
Israel has reportedly eliminated key figures including Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the father of Iran’s nuclear and missile program, and Abu Muhammad al-Masri, a senior al Qaeda official residing in Tehran.
Iran’s paranoia toward Israel and the Mossad has only grown since October 7. The regime reportedly executed a 24-year-old law student and advisor to the supreme leader’s office named Mohsen Saravani on charges of spying for Israel.
Iran and Israel
The latest on the ongoing 40-year shadow war between the Islamic Republic and the Jewish state.
Anti-Israel Adult Actress Travels to Iran
American adult film actress Whitney Wright visited Iran in early February. Although she could have been sentenced to death for her profession, Wright’s anti-Israel views qualified her for an Iranian tourist visa. Wright has been accused of promoting propaganda for Iran.
Why it matters. The Iranian regime is ideological. But it is also pragmatic. It will issue a visa for an adult film star as long as she is also an anti-Israeli propagandist.
Wright is not the first adult film actress to visit Iran. But she is the first since the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests against police brutality and misogyny in Iran.
Though the clerics turned a blind eye, many Iranians believe that Wright was the Iranian government’s guest.
https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/view-tehran-march-2024-ahmad-hashemi
I shared my thoughts on Mohammad Mokhber’s interim presidency @ The Epoch Times:
In this newsletter from Hudson’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, Research Fellow Ahmad Hashemi gives a look beyond the mainstream discourse on Iran. For the latest important and revealing developments from the country, subscribe here.
Resistance Axis
News about Iran’s proxy network in the Middle East.
Iran Equips Surrogates with Its Latest Technologies
Iran’s investment in a robust military industrial complex is paying off. The Islamic Republic’s proxy wars are increasingly tech-savvy and decreasingly labor-intensive for Tehran.
At the Doha International Maritime Defense Exhibition (DIMDEX), Iran showcased naval weapons and full-sized models of unmanned aerial vehicles, including one named “Gaza.” Additionally, the Houthis claim to have a hypersonic cruise missile.
Why it matters. The United States and its allies’ reluctance to retaliate to Iran’s attacks has emboldened Tehran and validated its strategy of maintaining plausible deniability while arming proxies with increasingly sophisticated weapons.
Hajji Washington
Developments in Iran-US relations.
Iran Exports “Death to America” Chants
Thanks to Iran’s information warfare, Chicagoans do not need to leave home to hear “death to America and death to Israel” chants. A group of purported anti-war activists chanted this slogan in Farsi at the Teamsters Union’s Chicago headquarters, led by an organizer whom the Daily Caller identified as Shabbir Rizvi.
Why it matters. Shabbir Rizvi is an Iranian regime supporter and Hamas sympathizer who poses as a peace activist. He has appeared on Iran’s English-language television network, Press TV, as a political analyst and has published numerous anti-Israel op-eds.
Middle Easterners view people chanting anti-American slogans on US soil as a sign of America’s weakness. Though the Iranian government is a pariah in the West, these protests demonstrate that Tehran has managed to expand its network of influence.
Love Triangle
On the alliance among Ali Khamenei’s Iran, Xi Jinping’s China, and Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Iran, Russia, and China’s Joint Naval Drill
China, Iran, and Russia held a joint naval drill, Marine Security Belt 2024, in the Gulf of Oman, a crucial waterway near the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
Why it matters. US Central Command leader General Michael Kurilla sounded the alarm to lawmakers about Iran’s tightening of its ties with Russia and China. He told a House Armed Services Committee hearing that “Iran is reliant on China, and Russia is reliant on Iran.” North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also warned in April that autocratic regimes are forming an “axis of evil” to challenge Western democracies.
Iran and Israel
The latest on the shadow war between the Islamic Republic and the Jewish state.
Iran Is Paranoid about Mossad’s Involvement in Baluchistan
As Iran struggles to control its eastern borders, conspiracy theories about Mossad’s involvement in ethnic riots are spreading in Tehran.
Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan Province is the most impoverished region in the country, mostly because the Baluch people are Sunni and non-Persian. Iran’s systemic discrimination against the Baluch has given rise to numerous militant separatist groups in the province.
Jaish al-Adl, one Baluch separatist group, occasionally attacks Iran’s security forces. On April 4, the Iranian media reported a series of attacks. The militants claimed they targeted six regime outposts. During these clashes, dozens of Iranian Army and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) troops were killed.
Why it matters. Iran has succeeded in expanding its influence in the region but still cannot stabilize its borders. Tehran labels Sunni Baluch separatist groups as “Zionist conspirators” and describes the Baluch as “foreign nationals” and “non-Iranians.”
Even Iranian opposition groups have unfavorable views of the Baluch. US-based former political prisoner and Milton Friedman Prize winner Akbar Ganji claimed that the Baluch militants who engaged in clashes with Iranian forces are Mossad mercenaries.
Iran vs. Aniran
Tehran’s relations with non-Iranian peoples in and around the Islamic Republic.
Iranians Claim That Israel’s Embassy in Azerbaijan Is a Legitimate Target
Iran promised a response to a suspected Israeli missile attack that destroyed Iran’s consulate in the Syrian capital of Damascus and killed seven people, including a top IRGC commander. In the aftermath of the attack, Iran-affiliated social media accounts advocated striking Israel’s diplomatic missions in the region, including in Azerbaijan.
Member of Iranian Parliament Rashidi Kuchi suggested that Iran should “openly and directly target one of the diplomatic centers of the Zionists in one of the countries of the region, preferably Azerbaijan.”
Why it matters. Iran is suspicious of its neighbors who maintain cordial ties with Israel. October 7 was, among other things, a move to stop normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Iran is alarmed by the Azerbaijan-Israel friendship and wants nothing more than to sabotage it. But Tehran is also concerned about potential backlash from Iranian Azerbaijanis if the IRGC fires missiles at Baku. An Azerbaijani activist warned that an attack on the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan would exacerbate tensions between Azerbaijani Turks and Persians in Iran.
In Iran’s political literature, and among Persian nationalists in particular, a “Turk-o-Fars war”—a confrontation between Azerbaijani Turks and Persians—is a taboo term and a situation that the regime needs to avoid at all costs.
The Streets of Tehran
The most debated news, issues, and topics of amusement among Iranians.
The Iran-Israel Aerial Confrontation Changed the Equation
Iranians hold differing opinions about the significance of Iran-Israel strikes and counterstrikes. Alam Saleh, a professor of political science at the Australian National University, believes that Iran’s daring strike shows that Tehran is a nuclear threshold country. Iran’s attack suggests that the decision to build nuclear weapons is political, not a matter of Tehran’s technical capability, Saleh argued.
Hooshang Amirahmadi of Rutgers University said that Iran must take an “eye for an eye” approach: Iran must hit an Israeli consulate as a proportional response. He also said that “Iran should not worry about the US reaction. The US cannot do a damn thing.”
US-based political activist Mehdi Jalali argued that the attack revealed that Israel’s military might is a myth. He claimed that Israel’s weak and insufficient retaliation dealt an even bigger blow to Israel’s deterrence.
Why it matters. Perception and deterrence matter. Though Iran failed to inflict major pain on Israel with hundreds of drones and missiles on April 13, many Iranians believe that Israel’s air superiority and near-invincibility are no longer certain.
Beyt Update
News from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s office and official residence.
Smash the Head of the Snake!
Reactions to Israel’s retaliation to Iran’s strike were mixed. Some Iranians welcomed an Israeli counterattack, posting messages like, “Israel! Smash the snake’s head!” Others urged Israel to “strike at the Beyt!” One user said Iranians need “to launch a massive online campaign and urge Israel to directly strike the supreme leader’s office.” A graffiti artist wrote, “Israel! Attack Iran and we will pour into the streets!” Another asked Israel to return the historic favor: “Cyrus the Great saved the Jews [in Babylon] and now it is time for Israel [to return the favor by striking the Mullah regime in Iran].”
There were rumors that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior IRGC commanders had gone into hiding in expectation of Israel’s retaliation. Kayhan London stated that Khamenei had fallen into an Israeli trap, implying that the supreme leader was anxious about the response to his attack.
Why it matters. Despite the regime’s antisemitic propaganda, Iranians are distrustful of their government’s anti-Israel rhetoric. Some Iranians are among the most pro-Israel people in the region. Public expression of pro-Israeli sentiments is dangerous, but many managed to break their silence on anonymous social media accounts.
Domestic dissent in the face of a potential war with Israel scares the mullahs. Citing a source in Iran, the US-based Persian-language website IranWire revealed that Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence recently held special meetings aimed at studying the likelihood of “riots” in the event of a potential Israeli attack on Iran.
https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/view-tehran-may-2024-ahmad-hashemi
The Oct. 7 massacre in southern Israel was a climax in Iran’s proxy war against Israel and the West, as Tehran attempts to reshape the Middle Eastern order in its favor. By conducting the worst terrorist attack inside Israel using Hamas, the Iranian regime achieved numerous strategic and tactical objectives.
On that ominous Saturday, Iran dealt a great security blow to the Jewish state. Israel’s intelligence and security services have been called into question for failing to anticipate the large-scale attack as hundreds of Hamas terrorists penetrated Israel and massacred some 1400 people.
By plotting this slaughter, Iran also further managed to sideline the pro-peace, pro-two-state Palestinian factions, while propping up Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other terrorist organizations that are determined to annihilate the state of Israel.
The ramifications of the Oct. 7 massacre went far beyond Israel’s borders, though. Tehran’s bloody adventure in Israel derailed the Saudi-Israeli normalization process and weakened efforts to expand the historic Arab-Israeli peace initiative, better known as the Abraham Accords. Amid the Israel-Hamas war, Saudi Arabia has decided to put normalization with Israel “on ice” and it is not clear if or when the normalization can be salvaged.
Israel’s ties with Turkey too, have become a casualty of the Israel-Hamas war. Tehran has irreversibly harmed slowly mending Turkish-Israeli ties by fabricating a conflict that has brought about a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, provoking Muslim and Turkish outrage.
In addition, by destabilizing the region, Iran has at least temporarily succeeded in neutralizing the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. This was supposed to be the biggest international economic development plan after China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Put forth by India, the corridor would have bypassed Iran and connected India through Israel and Arab Gulf states to Europe, as an alternative to China’s project.
Furthermore, as a counterweight to U.S. deployment in the Gulf, Iran has created a conducive ground for the presence of up to six Chinese warships in the Middle East region.
By creating an unprovoked crisis in the Middle East, Iran has also provided Russia with much-needed relief as the U.S. and the EU have distracted from the war in Ukraine. Undoubtedly, China and Russia are appreciative of the chaos in Gaza, masterminded by Iran against the rules-based world order. China and Russia have not condemned Hamas’s atrocities and only criticized Israeli strikes in Gaza. Sensing weakness from the United States, China may consider a more aggressive approach toward what it calls “Chinese Reunification” by taking Taiwan.
Finally, by manufacturing a conflict in Gaza, Iran has diverted global attention away from its nuclear program. A prolonged war in the Middle East, coupled with the Biden Administration’s weakness, can help Iran go nuclear.
Israel, meanwhile, is understandably angry and seeks revenge. However, instead of a protracted ground offensive in Gaza, Israel should direct its wrath against the Iranian regime that is the main culprit behind the Oct. 7 massacre. Hamas and other militia groups in Israel’s vicinity are Iran’s subcontractors who carry out their death missions on behalf of Ayatollahs in Tehran.
In addition, due to the asymmetrical nature of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, it is an unwinnable war for Israel without mass killing of Palestinian civilians. As the war drags on and the Palestinian death tolls rise, Israel loses much of the support it gained after Hamas’ attack. Any mass Palestinian casualties stemming from a prolonged Israeli ground invasion or reoccupation of Gaza would only serve Iran’s interests and that of Hamas and other radical non-state players in the Muslim world.
To avoid such future terrorist attacks, Israel must win this war, but not in Gaza. As extreme as it might sound, striking targets in Iran is the way to push Iran back and defeat its expansionist agenda.
Israel has already threatened to cut off “the head of the snake.” Now that Iran has initiated a proxy war against Jerusalem, Israel should seize the opportunity to destroy the clerical regime’s advancing nuclear program, among other things.
Hamas has nothing to lose, but Iran has everything to lose. Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile, and drone programs, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters are legitimate targets. Israel needs full U.S. military, intelligence, and technological support to carry out its strikes once and for all. Only effective strikes on those targets would reverse Iran’s decisive victory on Oct. 7, not to mention its alarming nuclear advancements.
Iran has already won the 2023 Israeli-Gaza war and achieved major victories through its proxies in Gaza, namely Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Yet the clerical regime denies having any role in the conflict and sees the West as gullible. Some Biden administration officials repeat the same falsehood and naïvely, or even worse, dishonestly claim that there is no evidence Iran was involved in the recent terrorist attack in Israel.
Under the guise of plausible deniability, Tehran has recently stepped up its proxy attacks against U.S. targets. The lack of a credible deterrence under the Biden administration is to blame for more than 40 proxy attacks on U.S. forces by Iran-led proxy groups in the Middle East. Iran knows how to hide behind its terrorist proxy forces to evade consequences. Yet, by removing Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, former President Donald Trump proved that Iran can and must be held responsible for the actions of its surrogates.
The West must establish plausible deterrence while rejecting Iran’s game of plausible deniability concerning its terrorist activities in the Middle East region and beyond.
The longer the U.S. and Israel avoid establishing military deterrence by directly holding the Iranian regime to account for Hamas and other proxy attacks, the more Washington and Jerusalem are going to be vulnerable to attacks by Iran’s proxies.
My latest @TheHillOpinion @thehill
Xi Jinping and Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud co-sign the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between the People’s Republic of China and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh on December 8, 2022.
Iran’s President, Ebrahim Raisi, endorsed a law last month that adds Chinese to the list of foreign languages that can be taught in Iranian middle and high schools.
This move comes at a time when there is great sensitivity about teaching Western languages in Iran. English is especially stigmatized as a conduit for the West’s “cultural invasion.” After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei criticized the teaching of English in 2016, Iran imposed a ban on teaching English at primary schools. The endorsement of the Chinese language as an alternative builds upon that.
Yet the expansion of Mandarin Chinese and its inclusion in school curricula is not limited to Iran. It is occurring all over the Middle East, not as a purely cultural or even economically driven measure. Rather, it is part of a new China-led civilizational, cultural and geopolitical genesis.
Sinification is nothing new. It is a process by which non-Chinese societies or groups are acculturated or assimilated into the language, culture, and social norms of the Han Chinese, the largest ethnic group in China. Yet large-scale Sinicization as an expansionist policy is the modern invention of President Xi Jinping.
Under Xi’s rule, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has stepped up measures to spread standard Mandarin at home and abroad as an instrument of soft power and political influence. Driven by Chinese nationalism, the Xi regime is seeking to assimilate and Sinicize ethnic minorities within China by actively seeking to eradicate the language and culture of Turkic Uyghurs in East Turkestan, Mongol residents of Inner Mongolia, and Tibetans. This is part of a broader plan to consolidate power that includes the complete subjugation of Hong Kong, the conquest of Taiwan, and the conversion of the South China Sea into a Chinese lake.
But the PRC’s language imperialism is not limited to China’s current boundaries. Beijing is also Sinifying the Middle East and other parts of the world at an unprecedented pace. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have taken significant steps to incorporate the Chinese language into their educational systems.
In addition to banning English instruction in primary schools and adding Chinese to school curricula, Tehran has also kept in place its longstanding ban on languages of non-Persian ethnic groups in the country. It has prohibited education in Azerbaijani, a language spoken by more than one-third of its population, even intensifying its crackdown. Yet the Iranian regime is not concerned about spreading Mandarin and funding Chinese language courses.
Investment in the Chinese language in Iran has little to do with linguistic or cultural exchange and everything to do with geopolitics. Some high-ranking Iranian clerics go as far as to absurdly claim that relations between China and Iran are based on God’s commandments in the Quran.
The Islamic Republic even supports the Chinese communists’ genocide against Muslims in Xinjiang, arguing that China is serving Islam by suppressing Uyghur Muslim radicals. And the Iranian news outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps even denies that a Uyghur genocide is happening at all — it’s all just American propaganda, intended to weaken China’s territorial integrity, incite ethnic division and slow Chinese economic growth.
Following President Joe Biden’s promise to make Saudi Arabia a pariah, and three years after Mohammed bin Salman’s 2019 Asia tour, the Saudi government has developed a strategic and economic partnership with China. It has elevated the status of Chinese as the country’s third educational language after Arabic and English.
King Saud University has signed an agreement with the Confucius Institute to establish a Chinese language department. The University of Jeddah has made it mandatory for freshmen to study Mandarin irrespective of their major. In December 2021, the number of high schools that teach the Chinese language skyrocketed to over 700 in total. Saudi Arabia’s state-owned media refer to Chinese as the “language of the future.”
Undoubtedly, the Saudi government’s substantial investment in teaching Chinese is rooted in geopolitics, driven by a desire to fulfill its comprehensive Saudi Vision 2030 program. This program is a strategic framework to reduce Saudi dependence on oil and diversify the kingdom’s economic and security partners.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s growing ties with China have generated a keener interest than ever before among Turks in learning the Chinese language and culture. As in other parts of the Middle East, Chinese is growing in popularity in Turkey as a second language.
Confucius Institutes are shaping positive perceptions of China in the Muslim world, operating within Turkey at Yeditepe University, one of Istanbul’s leading private universities.
China has even managed to cultivate a pro-Chinese Communist Party base in Turkey. Maoist Patriotic Party leader Doğu Perinçek has earned the title of “Jinping Perinçek” for his outright support for the PRC’s expansionist policies on the South China Sea and his denial of CCP’s Turkic Uighur genocide, which he calls a hoax put on by the CIA.
This is a trend the the U.S. cannot afford to overlook.
