Iran Protests: When the Bazaar Turns Against the State
I discussed the implications of the current protest movement in Iran for the Global Policy Institute (GPI).
I argued that this round of protests will not lead to a regime collapse, nor is such a collapse imminent. Despite the mass casualties and the extreme brutality displayed by the Iranian government, the regime remains stable for several key reasons.
Contrary to the narrative often repeated in Western media, popular dissatisfaction does not automatically equate to a government's fall. While the Iranian regime is deeply unpopular, it persists because the following critical elements are missing:
· No mass defections within the IRGC or security forces.
· No sustained labor strikes in the vital oil industry.
· No unified opposition leadership.
· Deep fragmentation among opposition groups.
Furthermore, I addressed the role of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah of Iran. Although some Western circles attempt to frame him as a leader for the protest movement or a transitional figure for a post-Islamic Republic Iran, he remains a highly divisive figure. He is particularly unpopular among non-Persian ethnic groups, who constitute roughly half of Iran’s population. Reza Pahlavi is an asset to the Iranian regime, and the mullahs in Tehran are grateful for his divisive and destructive role within the ranks of the opposition forces. He is unfit for a transitional role and has zero chance of being restored as a monarch in the 21st century. The Iranian people seek democratization, dignity, and progress. They want to move forward, not backward toward the brutal, repressive rule of an absolute monarch.
Watch the conversation here:
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