Iran is down, but not out.
In my recent interview with Al Taghier TV, I argued that while Iran is down, but not out, the "machine of repression" remains largely intact. I emphasized that a true revolutionary shift will only occur when we see three critical indicators:
1- Institutional Cracks: Mass defections within the IRGC ranks.
2- Economic Paralysis: Sustained, massive labor strikes in the vital oil sector.
3- Cohesive Opposition: A unified opposition leadership council.
Currently, none of these conditions has materialized. I also analyzed Iran’s strategic efforts to reconstitute its "Axis of Resistance." While Iraqi Shiite militias and the Houthis in Yemen remain mostly intact, Tehran is finding it significantly harder to rebuild Hezbollah and Hamas from the ashes.
Regarding the political landscape, I noted that the opposition remains deeply fractured. I argued that Reza Pahlavi—whether inadvertently or otherwise—serves as the regime’s greatest asset by acting as a polarizing figure. His prominence currently serves the regime’s interests by deepening internal divisions and preventing the formation of a truly cohesive opposition front.
Ultimately, while the regime is significantly weakened, its resilience should not be underestimated as long as the security apparatus holds and the opposition remains divided.
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