26 December, 2023

Iran Is the Main Beneficiary of the Gaza Crisis, but Israel Can Turn the Tables

 The Oct. 7 massacre in southern Israel was a climax in Iran’s proxy war against Israel and the West, as Tehran attempts to reshape the Middle Eastern order in its favor. By conducting the worst terrorist attack inside Israel using Hamas, the Iranian regime achieved numerous strategic and tactical objectives. 

On that ominous Saturday, Iran dealt a great security blow to the Jewish state. Israel’s intelligence and security services have been called into question for failing to anticipate the large-scale attack as hundreds of Hamas terrorists penetrated Israel and massacred some 1400 people. 

By plotting this slaughter, Iran also further managed to sideline the pro-peace, pro-two-state Palestinian factions, while propping up Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other terrorist organizations that are determined to annihilate the state of Israel.  

The ramifications of the Oct. 7 massacre went far beyond Israel’s borders, though. Tehran’s bloody adventure in Israel derailed the Saudi-Israeli normalization process and weakened efforts to expand the historic Arab-Israeli peace initiative, better known as the Abraham Accords. Amid the Israel-Hamas war, Saudi Arabia has decided to put normalization with Israel “on ice” and it is not clear if or when the normalization can be salvaged. 

Israel’s ties with Turkey too, have become a casualty of the Israel-Hamas war. Tehran has irreversibly harmed slowly mending Turkish-Israeli ties by fabricating a conflict that has brought about a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, provoking Muslim and Turkish outrage. 

In addition, by destabilizing the region, Iran has at least temporarily succeeded in neutralizing the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. This was supposed to be the biggest international economic development plan after China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Put forth by India, the corridor would have bypassed Iran and connected India through Israel and Arab Gulf states to Europe, as an alternative to China’s project. 

Furthermore, as a counterweight to U.S. deployment in the Gulf, Iran has created a conducive ground for the presence of up to six Chinese warships in the Middle East region.

By creating an unprovoked crisis in the Middle East, Iran has also provided Russia with much-needed relief as the U.S. and the EU have distracted from the war in Ukraine. Undoubtedly, China and Russia are appreciative of the chaos in Gaza, masterminded by Iran against the rules-based world order. China and Russia have not condemned Hamas’s atrocities and only criticized Israeli strikes in Gaza. Sensing weakness from the United States, China may consider a more aggressive approach toward what it calls “Chinese Reunification” by taking Taiwan.  

Finally, by manufacturing a conflict in Gaza, Iran has diverted global attention away from its nuclear program. A prolonged war in the Middle East, coupled with the Biden Administration’s weakness, can help Iran go nuclear.   

Israel, meanwhile, is understandably angry and seeks revenge. However, instead of a protracted ground offensive in Gaza, Israel should direct its wrath against the Iranian regime that is the main culprit behind the Oct. 7 massacre. Hamas and other militia groups in Israel’s vicinity are Iran’s subcontractors who carry out their death missions on behalf of Ayatollahs in Tehran. 

In addition, due to the asymmetrical nature of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, it is an unwinnable war for Israel without mass killing of Palestinian civilians. As the war drags on and the Palestinian death tolls rise, Israel loses much of the support it gained after Hamas’ attack. Any mass Palestinian casualties stemming from a prolonged Israeli ground invasion or reoccupation of Gaza would only serve Iran’s interests and that of Hamas and other radical non-state players in the Muslim world.

To avoid such future terrorist attacks, Israel must win this war, but not in Gaza. As extreme as it might sound, striking targets in Iran is the way to push Iran back and defeat its expansionist agenda.

Israel has already threatened to cut off “the head of the snake.” Now that Iran has initiated a proxy war against Jerusalem, Israel should seize the opportunity to destroy the clerical regime’s advancing nuclear program, among other things. 

Hamas has nothing to lose, but Iran has everything to lose. Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile, and drone programs, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters are legitimate targets. Israel needs full U.S. military, intelligence, and technological support to carry out its strikes once and for all. Only effective strikes on those targets would reverse Iran’s decisive victory on Oct. 7, not to mention its alarming nuclear advancements. 

Iran has already won the 2023 Israeli-Gaza war and achieved major victories through its proxies in Gaza, namely Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Yet the clerical regime denies having any role in the conflict and sees the West as gullible. Some Biden administration officials repeat the same falsehood and naïvely, or even worse, dishonestly claim that there is no evidence Iran was involved in the recent terrorist attack in Israel.  

Under the guise of plausible deniability, Tehran has recently stepped up its proxy attacks against U.S. targets. The lack of a credible deterrence under the Biden administration is to blame for more than 40 proxy attacks on U.S. forces by Iran-led proxy groups in the Middle East. Iran knows how to hide behind its terrorist proxy forces to evade consequences. Yet, by removing Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, former President Donald Trump proved that Iran can and must be held responsible for the actions of its surrogates.  

The West must establish plausible deterrence while rejecting Iran’s game of plausible deniability concerning its terrorist activities in the Middle East region and beyond.

The longer the U.S. and Israel avoid establishing military deterrence by directly holding the Iranian regime to account for Hamas and other proxy attacks, the more Washington and Jerusalem are going to be vulnerable to attacks by Iran’s proxies. 

Read in The Hill.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4305543-iran-is-the-main-beneficiary-of-the-gaza-crisis-but-israel-can-turn-the-tables/

https://www.hudson.org/terrorism/iran-main-beneficiary-gaza-crisis-israel-can-turn-tables-ahmad-hashemi


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/iran-is-the-main-beneficiary-of-the-gaza-crisis-but-israel-can-turn-the-tables/ar-AA1jQ7SI?ocid=socialshare&cvid=2bb721d56f4b453685d5b703391f747e&ei=43 

05 October, 2023

Soft power: Communist China’s linguistic expansion sweeps the Middle East

My latest @TheHillOpinion @thehill

Soft power: Communist China’s linguistic expansion sweeps the Middle East





Soft power: Communist China’s linguistic expansion sweeps the Middle East

My latest @TheHillOpinion @thehill

Soft Power: Communist China’s Linguistic Expansion Sweeps the Middle East

ahmad_hashemi

Ahmad Hashemi

Xi Jinping and Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud co-sign the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between the People’s Republic of China and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh on December 8, 2022.

Iran’s President, Ebrahim Raisi, endorsed a law last month that adds Chinese to the list of foreign languages that can be taught in Iranian middle and high schools.

This move comes at a time when there is great sensitivity about teaching Western languages in Iran. English is especially stigmatized as a conduit for the West’s “cultural invasion.” After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei criticized the teaching of English in 2016, Iran imposed a ban on teaching English at primary schools. The endorsement of the Chinese language as an alternative builds upon that.

Yet the expansion of Mandarin Chinese and its inclusion in school curricula is not limited to Iran. It is occurring all over the Middle East, not as a purely cultural or even economically driven measure. Rather, it is part of a new China-led civilizational, cultural and geopolitical genesis.

Sinification is nothing new. It is a process by which non-Chinese societies or groups are acculturated or assimilated into the language, culture, and social norms of the Han Chinese, the largest ethnic group in China. Yet large-scale Sinicization as an expansionist policy is the modern invention of President Xi Jinping.

Under Xi’s rule, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has stepped up measures to spread standard Mandarin at home and abroad as an instrument of soft power and political influence. Driven by Chinese nationalism, the Xi regime is seeking to assimilate and Sinicize ethnic minorities within China by actively seeking to eradicate the language and culture of Turkic Uyghurs in East Turkestan, Mongol residents of Inner Mongolia, and Tibetans. This is part of a broader plan to consolidate power that includes the complete subjugation of Hong Kong, the conquest of Taiwan, and the conversion of the South China Sea into a Chinese lake.

But the PRC’s language imperialism is not limited to China’s current boundaries. Beijing is also Sinifying the Middle East and other parts of the world at an unprecedented pace. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have taken significant steps to incorporate the Chinese language into their educational systems.

In addition to banning English instruction in primary schools and adding Chinese to school curricula, Tehran has also kept in place its longstanding ban on languages of non-Persian ethnic groups in the country. It has prohibited education in Azerbaijani, a language spoken by more than one-third of its population, even intensifying its crackdown. Yet the Iranian regime is not concerned about spreading Mandarin and funding Chinese language courses.

Investment in the Chinese language in Iran has little to do with linguistic or cultural exchange and everything to do with geopolitics. Some high-ranking Iranian clerics go as far as to absurdly claim that relations between China and Iran are based on God’s commandments in the Quran.

The Islamic Republic even supports the Chinese communists’ genocide against Muslims in Xinjiang, arguing that China is serving Islam by suppressing Uyghur Muslim radicals. And the Iranian news outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps even denies that a Uyghur genocide is happening at all — it’s all just American propaganda, intended to weaken China’s territorial integrity, incite ethnic division and slow Chinese economic growth.

Following President Joe Biden’s promise to make Saudi Arabia a pariah, and three years after Mohammed bin Salman’s 2019 Asia tour, the Saudi government has developed a strategic and economic partnership with China. It has elevated the status of Chinese as the country’s third educational language after Arabic and English.

King Saud University has signed an agreement with the Confucius Institute to establish a Chinese language department. The University of Jeddah has made it mandatory for freshmen to study Mandarin irrespective of their major. In December 2021, the number of high schools that teach the Chinese language skyrocketed to over 700 in total. Saudi Arabia’s state-owned media refer to Chinese as the “language of the future.”

Undoubtedly, the Saudi government’s substantial investment in teaching Chinese is rooted in geopolitics, driven by a desire to fulfill its comprehensive Saudi Vision 2030 program. This program is a strategic framework to reduce Saudi dependence on oil and diversify the kingdom’s economic and security partners.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s growing ties with China have generated a keener interest than ever before among Turks in learning the Chinese language and culture. As in other parts of the Middle East, Chinese is growing in popularity in Turkey as a second language.

Confucius Institutes are shaping positive perceptions of China in the Muslim world, operating within Turkey at Yeditepe University, one of Istanbul’s leading private universities.  

China has even managed to cultivate a pro-Chinese Communist Party base in Turkey. Maoist Patriotic Party leader Doğu Perinçek has earned the title of “Jinping Perinçek” for his outright support for the PRC’s expansionist policies on the South China Sea and his denial of CCP’s Turkic Uighur genocide, which he calls a hoax put on by the CIA.

This is a trend the the U.S. cannot afford to overlook.

Read in The Hill.

https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/soft-power-communist-china-linguistic-expansion-sweeps-middle-east-ahmad-hashemi

My latest @TheHillOpinion @thehill

Soft Power: Communist China’s Linguistic Expansion Sweeps the Middle East

ahmad_hashemi

Ahmad Hashemi

Xi Jinping and Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud co-sign the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between the People's Republic of China and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh on December 8, 2022.

Iran’s President, Ebrahim Raisi, endorsed a law last month that adds Chinese to the list of foreign languages that can be taught in Iranian middle and high schools.

This move comes at a time when there is great sensitivity about teaching Western languages in Iran. English is especially stigmatized as a conduit for the West’s “cultural invasion.” After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei criticized the teaching of English in 2016, Iran imposed a ban on teaching English at primary schools. The endorsement of the Chinese language as an alternative builds upon that.

Yet the expansion of Mandarin Chinese and its inclusion in school curricula is not limited to Iran. It is occurring all over the Middle East, not as a purely cultural or even economically driven measure. Rather, it is part of a new China-led civilizational, cultural and geopolitical genesis.

Sinification is nothing new. It is a process by which non-Chinese societies or groups are acculturated or assimilated into the language, culture, and social norms of the Han Chinese, the largest ethnic group in China. Yet large-scale Sinicization as an expansionist policy is the modern invention of President Xi Jinping.

Under Xi’s rule, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has stepped up measures to spread standard Mandarin at home and abroad as an instrument of soft power and political influence. Driven by Chinese nationalism, the Xi regime is seeking to assimilate and Sinicize ethnic minorities within China by actively seeking to eradicate the language and culture of Turkic Uyghurs in East Turkestan, Mongol residents of Inner Mongolia, and Tibetans. This is part of a broader plan to consolidate power that includes the complete subjugation of Hong Kong, the conquest of Taiwan, and the conversion of the South China Sea into a Chinese lake.

But the PRC’s language imperialism is not limited to China’s current boundaries. Beijing is also Sinifying the Middle East and other parts of the world at an unprecedented pace. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have taken significant steps to incorporate the Chinese language into their educational systems.

In addition to banning English instruction in primary schools and adding Chinese to school curricula, Tehran has also kept in place its longstanding ban on languages of non-Persian ethnic groups in the country. It has prohibited education in Azerbaijani, a language spoken by more than one-third of its population, even intensifying its crackdown. Yet the Iranian regime is not concerned about spreading Mandarin and funding Chinese language courses.

Investment in the Chinese language in Iran has little to do with linguistic or cultural exchange and everything to do with geopolitics. Some high-ranking Iranian clerics go as far as to absurdly claim that relations between China and Iran are based on God’s commandments in the Quran.

The Islamic Republic even supports the Chinese communists’ genocide against Muslims in Xinjiang, arguing that China is serving Islam by suppressing Uyghur Muslim radicals. And the Iranian news outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps even denies that a Uyghur genocide is happening at all — it’s all just American propaganda, intended to weaken China’s territorial integrity, incite ethnic division and slow Chinese economic growth.

Following President Joe Biden’s promise to make Saudi Arabia a pariah, and three years after Mohammed bin Salman’s 2019 Asia tour, the Saudi government has developed a strategic and economic partnership with China. It has elevated the status of Chinese as the country’s third educational language after Arabic and English.

King Saud University has signed an agreement with the Confucius Institute to establish a Chinese language department. The University of Jeddah has made it mandatory for freshmen to study Mandarin irrespective of their major. In December 2021, the number of high schools that teach the Chinese language skyrocketed to over 700 in total. Saudi Arabia’s state-owned media refer to Chinese as the “language of the future.”

Undoubtedly, the Saudi government’s substantial investment in teaching Chinese is rooted in geopolitics, driven by a desire to fulfill its comprehensive Saudi Vision 2030 program. This program is a strategic framework to reduce Saudi dependence on oil and diversify the kingdom’s economic and security partners.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s growing ties with China have generated a keener interest than ever before among Turks in learning the Chinese language and culture. As in other parts of the Middle East, Chinese is growing in popularity in Turkey as a second language.

Confucius Institutes are shaping positive perceptions of China in the Muslim world, operating within Turkey at Yeditepe University, one of Istanbul’s leading private universities.  

China has even managed to cultivate a pro-Chinese Communist Party base in Turkey. Maoist Patriotic Party leader Doğu Perinçek has earned the title of “Jinping Perinçek” for his outright support for the PRC’s expansionist policies on the South China Sea and his denial of CCP’s Turkic Uighur genocide, which he calls a hoax put on by the CIA.

This is a trend the the U.S. cannot afford to overlook.

Read in The Hill.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4125270-soft-power-communist-chinas-linguistic-expansion-sweeps-the-middle-east/

https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/soft-power-communist-china-linguistic-expansion-sweeps-middle-east-ahmad-hashemi

 

Əhməd Haşimi: “İran bilməlidir ki, Təbrizin azadlığı Xankəndidən keçir” – MÜSAHİBƏ

 

Əhməd Haşimi: “İran bilməlidir ki, Təbrizin azadlığı Xankəndidən keçir” – MÜSAHİBƏ
احمد هاشمی: رژیم تروریستی، #ارمنی‌پرست، #تورک‌ستیز، #نژادپرست و #پان‌فارس ایران باید بداند که راه آزادی #تبریز از #خانکندی می‌گذرد

Əhməd Haşimi: “İran bilməlidir ki, Təbrizin azadlığı Xankəndidən keçir” – MÜSAHİBƏ
Hazırda oxunan: Əhməd Haşimi: “İran bilməlidir ki, Təbrizin azadlığı Xankəndidən keçir” – MÜSAHİBƏ
“İran İkinci Qarabağ müharibəsindən sonra Xankəndi ilə bağlı da əlindən gələni etməyə çalışdı. Lakin bu dəfə də, məcbur olaraq reallığı qəbul etməli oldu”.
Bu fikirləri Bizim.Media-ya müsahibəsində ABŞ-də yaşayan cənubi azərbaycanlı siyasi şərhçi Əhməd Haşimi deyib. İranın Zəngəzur dəhlizinə qarşı olmasının pərdəarxası məqamlarına diqqət çəkən politoloq, Cənubi Azərbaycan faktoruna görə, rəsmi Bakıya qarşı Tehranın ciddi addımlar ata bilməyəcəyini deyir.
MÖVZU İLƏ BAĞLI:
Tehrandan Ərdoğanın Zəngəzur dəhlizi ilə bağlı fikirlərinə REAKSİYA
Müsahibəni təqdim edirik:
- Cənab Haşimi, Xankəndi yenidən Azərbaycanın tam nəzarətindədir. Biz İranın hər zaman Azərbaycan ərazi bütövlüyünü sözdə dəstəklədiyini, lakin əməldə fərqli addımlar atdığını görürdük. Xankəndi məsələsində də, pərdə arxasında Ermənistanı dəstəkləyirdi. Nədir axı İranın Azərbaycana qarşı bu mövqeyinin səbəbi?
- İran Qarabağ məsələsində hər zaman narahat idi. 2020-ci ildə İranın iç üzünü hər kəs gördü. İşğalçı Ermənistana maddi və mənəvi, silah-sursat, diplomatik, əsgər göndərmək formasında dəstək verdi. Onlar Azərbaycan əsgərinin irəliləyişini əngəlləmək üçün fiziki maeələr də yaradırdı. Xankəndinin də azad edilməməsi üçün çox çalışdılar.
Lakin Azərbaycanın qərarlığı sayəsində İran rejimi heç nəyə nail ola bilmədi. İran İkinci Qarabağ müharibəsində də əlindən gələni etsə də, məğlub oldu. Latınca “fait accompli” ifadəsi var. Yəni oldu və bitdi. İran hüquqdan anlamasa da, beynəlxalq hüquqa qarşı olsa da, reallıqlarla üz-üzə gəldi. İkinci Qarabağ müharibəsindən sonra Xankəndi ilə bağlı da əlindən gələni etdi. Bu dəfə də, reallığı məcburi olaraq qəbul etməli oldu.
- Artıq reallıqlar dəyişib. İndi əsas məsələ Zəngəzur dəhlizinin reallaşmasıdır. Lakin İranın Zəngəzur dəhlizinə qarşı çıxmasına şahidlik edirik. Tehran Dəhlizin reallaşmaması üçün hansı maneələri yaradacaq?
- İran hər zaman Zəngəzur dəhlizinin reallaşmasını özünün “qırmızı xətti” adlandırıb. Mən elə düşünürəm ki, yenə də, eyni vəziyyət yaranacaq. İran rejimi əlindən gələni edəcək ki, Zəngəzur dəhlizi açılmasın. Əngəl üçün yenidən sərhəddə silah sursat daşıya bilərlər.
Hərbi təlimlərə də başlamaları mümkünür. Böyük ehtimalla, yenidən təhdidlərə keçəcəklər. Lakin bütün bunlara baxmayaraq İran reallığı yenidən qəbul edəcək. Çünki fərqli faktorlar var ki, İran rejimi onları qəbul etmək və boyun əymək məcburiyyətindədir.
Eynilə Qarabağ məsələsində olduğu kimi. Azərbaycan bölgədə yeni reallıqlar yaradıb. Xüsusən Azərbaycan əsgərinin gücünü 44 gündə tam gördük. Şuşanı azad etmək, o qayalıqları aşmaq asan məsələ deyil. Amerikada Azərbaycan hərbinin öyrənildiyini eşitmişəm. Azərbaycan əsgərinin özünə güvənməyi İran rejiminə qarşı da özünü göstərməkdədir.
- Region ölkələrinin hər biri Zəngəzur dəhlizinin reallaşmasını istəyir. Söhbət Türkiyə, Rusiya, Gürcüstandan gedir. Belə məqamda İranın dəhlizə qarşı olması reallığı dəyişə bilərmi?
- Türkiyə önəmli faktordur, NATO üzvüdür. Türkiyə hər zaman Azərbaycan dövlətinin, xalqının, millətinin arxasındadır. Cənab Ərdoğan Azərbaycan xalqının ən yaxın və ən səmimi dostudur. Türkiyə və Azərbaycan kimi Rusiya da, İranın Cənubi Qafqazda aktiv rol oynamasını istəmir. Rusiya hazırda xeyli zəifləsə də, bu, çox önəmli faktordur.
Zəngəzur dəhlizinin reallaşmasını Rusiya dəstəkləyir. Lakin İran rejiminin davranışları həm də Cənubi Azərbaycan faktorundan asılıdır. İran üçün ən böyük təhlükə ölkənin bölünməsidir. Bunu iranlı rəsmilər də etiraf edir. Onlar Cənubi Azərbaycan xalqının ayağa qalxmasından qorxurlar. Bu məqam İranın əl-ayağını bağlayır. Molla rejimi sözlə təhdidlər yağdırsa da, onları reallaşdırmaqda acizdir. Yəni, bütün hədələrə baxmayaraq ciddi addımlar atmayacaqlar.
- Hələ ki, Ermənistan da dəhlizə qarşıdır. Sizcə, İran Ermənistana dəstəyini davam etdirəcəkmi?
- Onlar Ermənistanı dəstəkləməyə davam edəcəklər. Hətta Zəngəzur bölgəsinə Ermənistana dəstək üçün əsgər də göndərə bilərlər. SEPAHI Ermənistana dəstək üçün göndərəcək. Əlindən gələni edəcək. Lakin gec ya tez reallığı qəbul etmək məcburiyyətində qalacaq. Artıq Cənubi Azərbaycanda da ciddi iradə var.
O iradə İranı dayandıracaq. Bizdə belə bir söz var: Təbrizin azadlığı Xankəndidən keçər.Artıq Xankəndi azad olduğuna görə, tam yeni reallıq, yeni bir balans var. Xankəndi azad olduğu üçün İran daha diqqətli olmalıdır, Təbrizi oyandırmamalıdır. Təbriz Cənubi Azərbaycanı təmsil edir.
Zəngəzur dəhlizi ilə bağlı əsas məsələ Ermənistanla uzlaşmaqdır. Ermənistan Azərbaycan və Türkiyənin təzyiqlərinə boyun əyəndən sonra İran heç nə edə bilməyəcək.
- Təşəkkür edirəm cənab Haşimi.
- Mən təşəkkür edirəm.
Tehran Orucoğlu, Bizim.Media

https://bizim.media/az/siyaset/158117/

Ahmad Hashemi’s comments at Breaking News on Saudi-Israeli normalization

 

Ahmad Hashemi’s comments at Breaking News on Saudi-Israeli normalization

My comments @BreakingDefense on potential Saudi-Israeli normalization: “MBS has put a heavy price tag for the normalization with Israel including the capability for domestic enrichment,” Ahmad Hashemi, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute, told Breaking Defense.

“I don’t think KSA-Israeli normalization is imminent because even if Saudi Arabia manages to get an approval from the US Congress — almost impossible — and secure advanced weapons like the F-35 jets, Hashemi said. there is no way Israel would agree with Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium in exchange for normalization,”

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/10/in-nuclear-push-saudi-arabia-could-play-us-china-off-each-other/?_ga=2.62439276.137340609.1696253592-942942739.1625582143

14 July, 2023

ماذا يعني انضمام إيران لمنظمة شنغهاي

 UNCATEGORIZED

ماذا يعني انضمام إيران لمنظمة شنغهاي

ماذا يعني انضمام إيران لمنظمة شنغهاي

13/07/2023

فيسبوك تويتر لينكدإن ماسنجر مشاركة عبر البريد

الاستماع للمقال صوتياً

WHIA- The Hill

رأي بقلم أحمد هاشمي

ترجمة وتحرير مرح البقاعي

في تاريخ 4 يوليو، بينما كانت الولايات المتحدة تحتفل بعيد ميلادها  الـ 247، كانت إيران تحتفي بميلاد نظام عالمي جديد متعدد الأقطاب، يهدف إلى استبدال النظام الحالي أحادي القطب بقيادة أمريكا.

ووصفت وكالة سبوتنيك الروسية للأنباء، وباللغة الفارسية، حدث دخول إيران إلى منظمة شنغهاي للتعاون (SCO) بأنه لم يأتِ توافقًا مع يوم استقلال أمريكا عن طريق الصدفة!

أصبحت إيران رسميًا تاسع عضو في هذه الكتلة الأمنية والاقتصادية التي تقودها الصين خلال القمة الافتراضية للمجموعة. وأشادت طهران بعضوية المجموعة باعتبارها إنجازًا لسياستها الخارجية والاقتصادية الموجهة نحو الشرق. ورحبت وسائل الإعلام الإيرانية بهذه العضوية باعتبارها خطوة ضد الهيمنة الأمريكية تنحو باتجاه تعزيز التعددية.

شكلت الصين وروسيا وإيران في السنوات الأخيرة كتلة سياسية وأمنية وعسكرية مناوئة للغرب، تسمى التحالف الثلاثي. والعضوية الكاملة لإيران في منظمة شنغهاي للتعاون ستؤدي إلى زيادة تعزيز مكانة تلك المجموعة.

وباعتبار الصين القوة الاقتصادية لهذه الكتلة الثلاثية غير الرسمية، فهي ستعمل على تعزيز اقتصاد الجمهورية الإسلامية المنكوبة بالعقوبات عن طريق شراء النفط الإيراني بطريقة غير مشروعة بخصم يصل إلى نسبة 25٪.

ومن المتوقع أن تقلل عضوية منظمة شنغهاي للتعاون من عزلة إيران الاقتصادية والدبلوماسية في الشؤون العالمية وأن تجعل العقوبات التي تقودها الولايات المتحدة ضد إيران أقل فعالية، ما بإمكانه أن يقوض نفوذ واشنطن في ممارسة المزيد من الضغط على إيران.

بكين هي الداعم الاقتصادي الرئيسي لموسكو في الحرب على أوكرانيا، حيث تعهدت بشراكة “بلا حدود” مع روسيا قبل وقت قصير من الغزو في فبراير من العام 2022، وهي تساعد في الحفاظ على اقتصاد روسيا في زمن الحرب. وقد أثار موقف الصين في هذا الصدد إدانة الاتحاد الأوروبي.

هذا ويواصل الحزب الشيوعي الصيني دعم الكرملين، ما يسمح باستمرار العدوان الروسي من خلال أن يكون أكبر شريك تجاري يقدم لموسكو شريان حياة اقتصادي.

بالإضافة إلى ذلك، تعد منظمة شنغهاي للتعاون مكانًا مهمًا لروسيا وإيران المتضررة من العقوبات لدعم بعضهما البعض. فالمنظمة ستعطي فرصة لروسيا وإيران للتخفيف من نتائج عقوبات الغرب.

نمت العلاقات الثنائية بين إيران وروسيا بشكل ملحوظ منذ أن غزت روسيا أوكرانيا في 24 فبراير 2022. وتقدم طهران لموسكو الدعم الدبلوماسي والعسكري، بينما تمنح روسيا إيران حاجاتها النووية وغيرها من التقنيات الأمنية والعسكرية المتقدمة.

علاوة على ذلك، تعد منظمة شنغهاي للتعاون منصة للأنظمة الاستبدادية لدعم بعضها البعض في قمع حركات التحرر أو التمرد المحلية. ففي 26 حزيران (يونيو)، في أعقاب ثورة مرتزقة فاغنر الخاطفة، اتصل الرئيس الإيراني إبراهيم رئيسي بنظيره الروسي فلاديمير بوتين وعرض “دعمه الكامل”. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، دعا قائد القوات المسلحة الإيرانية وزير الدفاع الروسي سيرجي شويغو لزيارة إيران خلال مكالمة هاتفية بينهما. وأخيراً قام قائد الشرطة الإيرانية في نفس الوقت بزيارة نادرة لموسكو.

منظمة شنغهاي للتعاون تأسست في عام 2001 من قبل الصين وروسيا، وهي مجموعة أمنية وسياسية أوروبية آسيوية تضم أيضًا الهند وباكستان وكازاخستان وطاجيكستان وأوزبكستان وقيرغيزستان وإيران التي انضمت حديثًا.

انضمام إيران إلى منظمة شنغهاي للتعاون من هذه الكتلة التي تقودها الصين يعتير تحديًا أكبر للأمن القومي والسياسة الخارجية للولايات المتحدة، إذ يتغير المشهد الجيوسياسي لصالح الصين، وتحتاج أمريكا إلى صياغة استراتيجية شاملة لعكس هذا التحول أو إبطائه.

ولمواجهة المد الصيني، تحتاج واشنطن إلى زيادة قدرات الردع التقليدية لديها، إذ يبدو أن رغبة الصين وقدرتها على الاستيلاء على تايوان بالقوة يتزايدان. في الوقت نفسه، تحتاج أمريكا إلى الانخراط من جديد، وليس تقليص الإنفاق. وقد يعني دخول إيران إلى منظمة شنغهاي للتعاون المزيد من الدور والتأثير الصيني في الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى.

هذا وتستند استراتيجية الصين حاليًا إلى تشجيع المملكة العربية السعودية والإمارات العربية المتحدة ودول مجلس التعاون الخليجي الأخرى على خفض مستوى شراكتهم الاستراتيجية مع الولايات المتحدة والانضمام إلى المحور الصيني الروسي، حيث إيران تنضم عضوًا جديدًا.

كانت القمة الأولى بين دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي والصين في أواخر عام 2022 حدثًا بارزًا، وأيضًا جرس إنذار للولايات المتحدة. تحتاج إدارة بايدن إلى طمأنة إسرائيل ودول الخليج العربي وتركيا وأذربيجان وأصدقاء وحلفاء آخرين، بأن واشنطن لا تتراجع من المنطقة أو عن التزامها منذ أكثر من نصف قرن بضمان أمن الطاقة والتدفق الحر للنفط، ولاسيما عبر مضيق هرمز.

أخيرًا، تحتاج الولايات المتحدة إلى تعزيز تحالفاتها في المحيطين الهندي والهادئ، فللولايات المتحدة علاقات ثنائية وحلفاء في اليابان وكوريا الجنوبية والفلبين وأستراليا وتايلاند ودول أخرى في المحيطين الهندي والهادئ. كما أن تعاون الولايات المتحدة مع رابطة دول جنوب شرق آسيا (ASEAN) أمر بالغ الأهمية. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، فإن تحويل الحوار الأمني الاستراتيجي بين الدول الرباعية، التي تتكون من الهند واليابان وأستراليا والولايات المتحدة، إلى تحالف أمني رسمي  شبيه بحلف شمال الأطلسي، من شأنه أن يرسل رسالة قوية في ردع المغامرات الصينية المستقبلية.

*أحمد هاشمي زميل باحث في معهد هدسون في العاصمة واشنطن.

Iran Just Joined a Pact with Moscow and Beijing—Here’s What It Means for the US

 OP-ED AHMAD HASHEMI, POLITICS

 

Iran Just Joined a Pact with Moscow and Beijing—Here’s What It Means for the US

ahmad_hashemi

Ahmad Hashemi

On July 4, as the U.S. was celebrating its 247th birthday, Iran was celebrating the birth of a new multipolar world order, intended to replace the current unipolar American-led order.

As Russia’s state-owned Persian language news agency Sputnik put it, Iran’s entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) did not occur on America’s Independence Day by coincidence.

Iran officially became the ninth full member of this China-led security and economic bloc during the group’s virtual summit on July 4. Tehran hailed its membership as an achievement for its eastern-oriented foreign and economic policy. Iranian media outlets welcomed this membership as a move against American hegemony and a step toward strengthening multilateralism.

China, Russia, and Iran have in recent years crafted a political, security, and military bloc in opposition to the West called the Triangular Alliance. Iran’s full membership in the SCO will only further boost that group’s status.

As the economic powerhouse of this unofficial tripartite bloc, China is beefing up the Islamic Republic’s sanctions-plagued economy by illicitly buying Iranian oil at a discount of up to 25%. Now, the SCO membership is expected to reduce Iran’s economic and diplomatic isolation in world affairs and make U.S.-led sanctions against Iran less effective, eroding Washington’s leverage to exert further pressure on Iran.

Also, Beijing is Moscow’s main economic backer in the war in Ukraine, pledging a “no-limits” partnership with Russia shortly before the February 2022 invasion and helping keep Russia’s wartime economy afloat. China’s position in this regard has triggered EU condemnation. By becoming Russia’s largest trade partner and offering Moscow an economic lifeline, the Chinese Communist Party continues to support the Kremlin, allowing Russia’s aggression to continue.

In addition, the SCO is an important venue for sanctions-hit Russia and Iran to back each other up. It gives an opportunity to Russia and Iran to minimize the consequences of the West’s sanctions. Iran and Russia’s bilateral relationship has grown significantly since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Tehran is providing Moscow with diplomatic and military backing, while Russia is giving Iran nuclear and other advanced security and military technology.

Furthermore, the SCO is a platform for leading authoritarian regimes to back one another in suppressing domestic mutinies. On June 26, in the immediate aftermath of the Wagner mercenaries’ brief revolt, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and offered his “full support.” In addition, the chief of the Iranian armed forces invited Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to visit Iran during a phone call. And finally, the commander of the Iranian Police paid a rare visit to Moscow.

Founded in 2001 by China and Russia, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a Eurasian security and political group that also includes India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and newly admitted Iran. Iran’s accession to the SCO makes this China-led bloc a bigger national security and foreign policy challenge to the U.S. The geopolitical landscape is changing in favor of China, and America needs to formulate a comprehensive strategy to reverse or slow down this shift.

To counter China, Washington needs to increase its conventional deterrence capabilities. Both China’s willingness and its ability to take Taiwan by force appear to be increasing. At the same time, America needs to re-engage, not retrench. The entry of Iran into the SCO would mean more Chinese footprints in the Middle East and Central Asia. In addition, China’s Middle East strategy is based on encouraging Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states to downgrade their strategic partnership with the U.S. and join the Chinese-Russian axis, of which Iran is a junior member.

The first GCC-China Summit in late 2022 was a milestone historical event and a wake-up call for the U.S. The Biden Administration needs to reassure Israel, Arab Gulf states, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, among other friends and allies, that Washington is not abandoning the region and is not giving up on America’s more than half-century commitment to ensuring the region’s energy security and the free flow of oil, including from the Strait of Hormuz.

Finally, the U.S. needs to consolidate existing alliances in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. has bilateral relations and treaty allies in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Thailand, and other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is also crucial. Additionally, transforming the strategic security dialogue between Quad states, consisting of India, Japan, Australia, and the United States, into a NATO-like formal and formidable security alliance, would send a strong message in deterring future Chinese adventurism.

Read in The Hill.

https://www.hudson.org/security-alliances/iran-just-joined-pact-moscow-beijing-heres-what-it-mean-us-ahmad-hashemi