Implications of TRIPP in the South Caucasus| GPI
My Conversation with BAU University Students on the Significance of TRIPP
I recently spoke to BAU University students about the significance of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) for the region and beyond, and the presentation outlines are included below:
The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) Corridor
The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) transit corridor is a geopolitically and economically vital project stemming from a US-brokered peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, signed following a White House meeting on August 8, 2025. This deal aims to finally resolve the decades-long Karabakh conflict. The core of TRIPP is a land connection linking mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory, for which the US has secured exclusive development rights under a 99-year lease.
Economic and Strategic Significance
Economically, TRIPP is crucial, as it will incorporate rail, road, energy, and fiber optic lines. This infrastructure creates a shorter, more direct East-West transit route along the Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route or TITR). It significantly links Turkey and the Caspian Sea, while strategically bypassing the territories of both Russia and Iran. This direct connection positions TRIPP as a key component in the broader Great Power Competition for international influence, trade, and strategic dominance across Eurasia.
The South Caucasus: A Geopolitical Crossroads
The South Caucasus, encompassing the independent nations of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, is geographically positioned between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, historically serving as a natural boundary between Eastern Europe and Western Asia. This region has always been a diverse, complex, and contested crossroads. Its modern geopolitical relevance is deeply rooted in its history, marked by centuries of control by various empires, including the Turkic-Persian empires and, later, the conquest by Imperial Russia in the 19th century.
Historical Tensions and the Soviet Legacy
Following the Russian conquest, the South Caucasus remained under the centralized control of the Soviet Union until 1991. The Soviet policy often employed a strategy of “divide and rule,” including the deliberate gerrymandering of administrative borders. A key example is the placement of the Nagorno-Karabakh region within the Azerbaijan SSR, and the granting of the Zangezur region (now Syunik Province in southern Armenia) to the Armenian SSR under Stalin—policies designed to create potential “frozen conflicts” and maintain central control.
Post-Soviet Conflicts and Instability
The collapse of the USSR in 1991 unleashed powerful nationalist movements, leading to the independence of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, but also resulting in devastating conflicts. These included the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988–1994), which left the region a “frozen conflict,” and Georgian separatist wars in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This instability allowed Russia to maintain leverage as the self-proclaimed regional security guarantor. The region’s geopolitical landscape was fundamentally reshaped by the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, which saw Azerbaijan reclaim significant territory.
Geopolitical Importance of Connectivity
TRIPP matters because the Caucasus and Central Asia matter. Geopolitical theories, such as Halford Mackinder’s “Heartland Theory” and Zbigniew Brzezinski’s analysis, underscore Eurasia’s strategic value, with Central Asia as the pivotal “Heartland” and Azerbaijan as the “cork in the bottle.” For millennia, controlling the Silk Road meant controlling the region’s wealth and influence. TRIPP, by establishing a crucial new corridor, is integral to the modern “New Great Game,” linking the landlocked Central Asian states and their resources to the global markets via the West, thus challenging the traditional routes controlled by Russia and Iran.
Winners: The US, Turkey, and Azerbaijan
The successful implementation of TRIPP has major winners. The United States gains a foothold in a key region, strengthening its commitment to the Middle Corridor as an alternative trade and energy route, thereby reducing dependency on Russia and Iran. Turkey stands to benefit significantly by advancing its commercial and political influence within the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). Azerbaijan enhances its position as a connectivity hub, strengthening its alliances and strategic importance.
Losers: Russia and Iran
The primary losers of the TRIPP corridor are Russia and Iran, who both prefer North-South connectivity over the East-West route championed by the US and Turkey. TRIPP directly challenges Iran due to its fears of “Turan convergence” (the growing cohesion of Turkic states) and the potential loss of substantial transit revenue. Russia sees TRIPP as a diminishing of its traditional role as the exclusive power broker in the South Caucasus, a move that further pushes Central Asian states away from its control and challenges its “Near Abroad” doctrine.
Challenges to TRIPP’s Success
The full realization of TRIPP and a lasting peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan is contingent on overcoming several significant challenges. These include President Trump’s continued interest and focus beyond mere “photo opportunities,” as well as the domestic survival of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan’s conciliatory efforts face strong opposition from pro-Russia and “old guard” forces in Armenia who view his concessions as betrayal. Furthermore, the influential Armenian lobby in the US and France actively seeks to obstruct policies seen as beneficial to Azerbaijan, posing a major political challenge.
The Path Forward
The White House-brokered TRIPP initiative is a crucial opportunity for increased US engagement in the South Caucasus and Eurasia to counter the influence of major rivals. To ensure TRIPP’s success and the full fruition of the peace plan, the US needs a robust, long-term Central Asia strategy. This strategy should focus on expanding diplomatic presence, fostering cooperation to bring Armenia closer to the Euro-Atlantic community, and pursuing ambitious regional strategies like advocating for the trans-Caspian natural gas pipeline and building institutional relationships with the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).
